Cell volume recovery and the prices of polysilicon solar energy industry is undoubtedly the most cause for concern in May the two signals;
From our observation of the situation of companies and dealers, the
1691P battery in May than a substantial increase in the volume of ring, some enterprises have increased year-on-year data, this is exciting news. Increased shipments mainly depends on three factors: the progressive installation of the beginning of season, the slow recovery of bank credit policies and the continuing uncertainty, which coincided with the fourth quarter of last year, in contrast to industry predicament;
The beginning of April in Europe, especially Germany, the end of the winter, outdoor construction to start on the components of the gradual restoration of the natural demand;
Some European banks began to slightly relax the restrictions on solar energy credit. This is the wave of bank failures over the past, the banking industry might not be worried about their own and so began the restoration of credit; On the other hand, the global scope of the new solar energy and publicity executives of banks and credit approval also has a direct impact.
Judge in accordance with the present situation, if no unexpected events occur, the global
battery shipments this year to achieve positive growth in the probability of a large, this is what we have been adhering to the view. Need to be reminded that, as a result of year-on-year decline in prices, income will decline in the size, of course, the magnitude of the specific need to see the back of the battery recovery of prices;
And battery shipments climbing situation is different, as the most important solar cell raw material, polysilicon prices are low again and again, the current price of mainstream products in the 50 to 60 yuan / ton level, leaving only last year Over the same period a fraction of the price, at such prices, some of the high cost of low-profit enterprises do not even have to make money, instead of polysilicon in accordance with the present price, the lower reaches of the
Latitude D620 battery and components in space while corporate profits have improved, which the former two years, the opposite is true;
Appeared to increase battery shipments fell but the reasons for polysilicon is still the structural imbalance between supply and demand.
Although shipments of
batteries than a significant increase in ring, but just the same the same period last year, but shipments of polysilicon has a substantial year-on-year growth, coupled with the factors and dealer inventory factors, volatile prices is not hard to understand;
Throughout the year, as well as from the perspective of the next two years, there has been no pattern of polysilicon supply and demand in excess of one-sided, doom will not be equivalent to changes in the cost price, we view that experience volatility in the industry gradually to the bulk chemical raw materials Properties close, winning the need to have the three characteristics of enterprises: large-scale, leading technology, a slight, low-cost.
From the demand, if the terminal needs to achieve positive predictive value, polysilicon and even a basic balance between supply and demand may have a small number of gaps, and the terminal from the current situation goes beyond the next two years is expected to demand a great possibility;
The supply side, step by step down the price of making a lot of plans to enter the industry began to deter investors from our current understanding of the situation, this case is not isolated cases, which makes the supply of the next two years will be less than current estimates value.
Gone through a harsh winter, the spring has been blow against our faces, though there is still a ray of slightly cooler.